# Statistics - Machine Learning Publications (50)

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## Statistics - Machine Learning Publications

We study the inference of a model of temporal networks in which both communities and links keep memory of previous network state. By considering maximum likelihood inference from single snapshot observation of the network, we show that link persistence decreases the detectability threshold, preventing the inference of communities even when they are in principle strong enough, while community persistence tends to restore this possibility. Then we show that the inferred communities share a maximum overlap with those of a specific previous instant of time, corresponding to the maximum of a time-lagged assortativity parameter, and therefore they can be closer to those of the past than of the present. Read More

Confidence intervals are a popular way to visualize and analyze data distributions. Unlike p-values, they can convey information both about statistical significance as well as effect size. However, very little work exists on applying confidence intervals to multivariate data. Read More

Stability is an important aspect of a classification procedure because unstable predictions can potentially reduce users' trust in a classification system and also harm the reproducibility of scientific conclusions. The major goal of our work is to introduce a novel concept of classification instability, i.e. Read More

We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and iterative algorithms based on topological orders to solve optimization problems with acyclic constraints on a directed graph. The proposed MIP model has a significantly lower number of constraints compared to popular MIP models based on cycle elimination constraints and triangular inequalities. The proposed iterative algorithms use gradient descent and iterative reordering approaches, respectively, for searching topological orders. Read More

In rare disease physician targeting, a major challenge is how to identify physicians who are treating diagnosed or underdiagnosed rare diseases patients. Rare diseases have extremely low incidence rate. For a specified rare disease, only a small number of patients are affected and a fractional of physicians are involved. Read More

With the large-scale penetration of the internet, for the first time, humanity has become linked by a single, open, communications platform. Harnessing this fact, we report insights arising from a unified internet activity and location dataset of an unparalleled scope and accuracy drawn from over a trillion (1.5$\times 10^{12}$) observations of end-user internet connections, with temporal resolution of just 15min over 2006-2012. Read More

In this article, we propose a new algorithm for supervised learning methods, by which one can both capture the non-linearity in data and also find the best subset model. To produce an enhanced subset of the original variables, an ideal selection method should have the potential of adding a supplementary level of regression analysis that would capture complex relationships in the data via mathematical transformation of the predictors and exploration of synergistic effects of combined variables. The method that we present here has the potential to produce an optimal subset of variables, rendering the overall process of model selection to be more efficient. Read More

We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma--Poisson construction---a natural choice for count data---and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an efficient MCMC inference algorithm that advances recent work on augmentation schemes for inference in negative binomial models. Read More

We introduce Fisher consistency in the sense of unbiasedness as a criterion to distinguish potentially suitable and unsuitable estimators of prior class probabilities in test datasets under prior probability and more general dataset shift. The usefulness of this unbiasedness concept is demonstrated with three examples of classifiers used for quantification: Adjusted Classify & Count, EM-algorithm and CDE-Iterate. We find that Adjusted Classify & Count and EM-algorithm are Fisher consistent. Read More

**Affiliations:**

^{1}LM-Versailles,

^{2}LAMA

This paper addresses the problem of estimating, in the presence of random censoring as well as competing risks, the extreme value index of the (sub)-distribution function associated to one particular cause, in the heavy-tail case. Asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator (which has the form of an Aalen-Johansen integral, and is the first estimator proposed in this context) is established. A small simulation study exhibits its performances for finite samples. Read More

We explore recently proposed variational dropout technique which provided an elegant Bayesian interpretation to dropout. We extend variational dropout to the case when dropout rate is unknown and show that it can be found by optimizing evidence variational lower bound. We show that it is possible to assign and find individual dropout rates to each connection in DNN. Read More

**Affiliations:**

^{1}PARIETAL, NEUROSPIN,

^{2}Thoth,

^{3}PARIETAL, NEUROSPIN,

^{4}NEUROSPIN, PARIETAL

We present a matrix-factorization algorithm that scales to input matrices with both huge number of rows and columns. Learned factors may be sparse or dense and/or non-negative, which makes our algorithm suitable for dictionary learning, sparse component analysis, and non-negative matrix factorization. Our algorithm streams matrix columns while subsampling them to iteratively learn the matrix factors. Read More

This paper corrects the proof of the Theorem 2 from the Gower's paper \cite[page 5]{Gower:1982}. The correction is needed in order to establish the existence of the kernel function used commonly in the kernel trick e.g. Read More

Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model which takes the hypothetical stance of asking what if an individual had received both treatments. Making use of random forests (RF) within the counterfactual framework we estimate individual treatment effects by directly modeling the response. Read More

Random forest (RF) missing data algorithms are an attractive approach for dealing with missing data. They have the desirable properties of being able to handle mixed types of missing data, they are adaptive to interactions and nonlinearity, and they have the potential to scale to big data settings. Currently there are many different RF imputation algorithms but relatively little guidance about their efficacy, which motivated us to study their performance. Read More

Sum-product networks have recently emerged as an attractive representation due to their dual view as a special type of deep neural network with clear semantics and a special type of probabilistic graphical model for which inference is always tractable. Those properties follow from some conditions (i.e. Read More

We consider the recovery of regression coefficients, denoted by $\boldsymbol{\beta}_0$, for a single index model (SIM) relating a binary outcome $Y$ to a set of possibly high dimensional covariates $\boldsymbol{X}$, based on a large but 'unlabeled' dataset $\mathcal{U}$. On $\mathcal{U}$, we fully observe $\boldsymbol{X}$ and additionally a surrogate $S$ which, while not being strongly predictive of $Y$ throughout the entirety of its support, can forecast it with high accuracy when it assumes extreme values. Such datasets arise naturally in modern studies involving large databases such as electronic medical records (EMR) where $Y$, unlike $(\boldsymbol{X}, S)$, is difficult and/or expensive to obtain. Read More

In this paper, we investigate the common scenario where every candidate item for recommendation is characterized by a maximum capacity, i.e., number of seats in a Point-of-Interest or size of an item's inventory. Read More

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have received increasing attention in recent years with applications that span a wide range of disciplines including vital domains such as medicine, network security and autonomous transportation. However, neural network architectures are becoming increasingly complex and with an increasing need to obtain real-time results from such models, it has become pivotal to use parallelization as a mechanism for speeding up network training and deployment. In this work we propose an implementation of Network Parallel Training through Cannon's Algorithm for matrix multiplication. Read More

Humans are not only adept in recognizing what class an input instance belongs to (i.e., classification task), but perhaps more remarkably, they can imagine (i. Read More

Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) has been phenomenally successful on various pattern recognition tasks. However, the design of neural networks rely heavily on the experience and intuitions of individual developers. In this article, the author introduces a mathematical structure called MLP algebra on the set of all Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks(MLP), which can serve as a guiding principle to build MLPs accommodating to the particular data sets, and to build complex MLPs from simpler ones. Read More

This paper presents an alternative approach to p-values in regression settings. This approach, whose origins can be traced to machine learning, is based on the leave-one-out bootstrap for prediction error. In machine learning this is called the out-of-bag (OOB) error. Read More

For a social networking service to acquire and retain users, it must find ways to keep them engaged. By accurately gauging their preferences, it is able to serve them with the subset of available content that maximises revenue for the site. Without the constraints of an appropriate regulatory framework, we argue that a sufficiently sophisticated curator algorithm tasked with performing this process may choose to explore curation strategies that are detrimental to users. Read More

We consider the linear regression problem under semi-supervised settings wherein the available data typically consists of: (i) a small or moderate sized 'labeled' data, and (ii) a much larger sized 'unlabeled' data. Such data arises naturally from settings where the outcome, unlike the covariates, is expensive to obtain, a frequent scenario in modern studies involving large databases like electronic medical records (EMR). Supervised estimators like the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator utilize only the labeled data. Read More

The goal of this paper is not to introduce a single algorithm or method, but to make theoretical steps towards fully understanding the training dynamics of generative adversarial networks. In order to substantiate our theoretical analysis, we perform targeted experiments to verify our assumptions, illustrate our claims, and quantify the phenomena. This paper is divided into three sections. Read More

We present a method for synthesizing a frontal, neutral-expression image of a person's face given an input face photograph. This is achieved by learning to generate facial landmarks and textures from features extracted from a facial-recognition network. Unlike previous approaches, our encoding feature vector is largely invariant to lighting, pose, and facial expression. Read More

Restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) is one of the fundamental building blocks of deep learning. RBM finds wide applications in dimensional reduction, feature extraction, and recommender systems via modeling the probability distributions of a variety of input data including natural images, speech signals, and customer ratings, etc. We build a bridge between RBM and tensor network states (TNS) widely used in quantum many-body physics research. Read More

Gaussian processes (GPs) have been proven to be powerful tools in various areas of machine learning. However, there are very few applications of GPs in the scenario of multi-view learning. In this paper, we present a new GP model for multi-view learning. Read More

One-Class Classification (OCC) has been prime concern for researchers and effectively employed in various disciplines. But, traditional methods based one-class classifiers are very time consuming due to its iterative process and various parameters tuning. In this paper, we present six OCC methods based on extreme learning machine (ELM) and Online Sequential ELM (OSELM). Read More

The rise and fall of artificial neural networks is well documented in the scientific literature of both computer science and computational chemistry. Yet almost two decades later, we are now seeing a resurgence of interest in deep learning, a machine learning algorithm based on multilayer neural networks. Within the last few years, we have seen the transformative impact of deep learning in many domains, particularly in speech recognition and computer vision, to the extent that the majority of expert practitioners in those field are now regularly eschewing prior established models in favor of deep learning models. Read More

In recent times, the use of separable convolutions in deep convolutional neural network architectures has been explored. Several researchers, most notably (Chollet, 2016) and (Ghosh, 2017) have used separable convolutions in their deep architectures and have demonstrated state of the art or close to state of the art performance. However, the underlying mechanism of action of separable convolutions are still not fully understood. Read More

We consider a sparse linear regression model Y=X\beta^{*}+W where X has a Gaussian entries, W is the noise vector with mean zero Gaussian entries, and \beta^{*} is a binary vector with support size (sparsity) k. Using a novel conditional second moment method we obtain a tight up to a multiplicative constant approximation of the optimal squared error \min_{\beta}\|Y-X\beta\|_{2}, where the minimization is over all k-sparse binary vectors \beta. The approximation reveals interesting structural properties of the underlying regression problem. Read More

Though distribution system operators have been adding more sensors to their networks, they still often lack an accurate real-time picture of the behavior of distributed energy resources such as demand responsive electric loads and residential solar generation. Such information could improve system reliability, economic efficiency, and environmental impact. Rather than installing additional, costly sensing and communication infrastructure to obtain additional real-time information, it may be possible to use existing sensing capabilities and leverage knowledge about the system to reduce the need for new infrastructure. Read More

The classification of MRI images according to the anatomical field of view is a necessary task to solve when faced with the increasing quantity of medical images. In parallel, advances in deep learning makes it a suitable tool for computer vision problems. Using a common architecture (such as AlexNet) provides quite good results, but not sufficient for clinical use. Read More

Regression models are increasingly built using datasets which do not follow a design of experiment. Instead, the data is e.g. Read More

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a multivariate statistical technique for finding the linear relationship between two sets of variables. The kernel generalization of CCA named kernel CCA has been proposed to find nonlinear relations between datasets. Despite their wide usage, they have one common limitation that is the lack of sparsity in their solution. Read More

A regularized risk minimization procedure for regression function estimation is introduced that achieves near optimal accuracy and confidence under general conditions, including heavy-tailed predictor and response variables. The procedure is based on median-of-means tournaments, introduced by the authors in [8]. It is shown that the new procedure outperforms standard regularized empirical risk minimization procedures such as lasso or slope in heavy-tailed problems. Read More

**Authors:**Graham Neubig, Chris Dyer, Yoav Goldberg, Austin Matthews, Waleed Ammar, Antonios Anastasopoulos, Miguel Ballesteros, David Chiang, Daniel Clothiaux, Trevor Cohn, Kevin Duh, Manaal Faruqui, Cynthia Gan, Dan Garrette, Yangfeng Ji, Lingpeng Kong, Adhiguna Kuncoro, Gaurav Kumar, Chaitanya Malaviya, Paul Michel, Yusuke Oda, Matthew Richardson, Naomi Saphra, Swabha Swayamdipta, Pengcheng Yin

We describe DyNet, a toolkit for implementing neural network models based on dynamic declaration of network structure. In the static declaration strategy that is used in toolkits like Theano, CNTK, and TensorFlow, the user first defines a computation graph (a symbolic representation of the computation), and then examples are fed into an engine that executes this computation and computes its derivatives. In DyNet's dynamic declaration strategy, computation graph construction is mostly transparent, being implicitly constructed by executing procedural code that computes the network outputs, and the user is free to use different network structures for each input. Read More

Existing approaches to online convex optimization (OCO) make sequential one-slot-ahead decisions, which lead to (possibly adversarial) losses that drive subsequent decision iterates. Their performance is evaluated by the so-called regret that measures the difference of losses between the online solution and the best yet fixed overall solution in hindsight. The present paper deals with online convex optimization involving adversarial loss functions and adversarial constraints, where the constraints are revealed after making decisions, and can be tolerable to instantaneous violations but must be satisfied in the long term. Read More

The promise of compressive sensing (CS) has been offset by two significant challenges. First, real-world data is not exactly sparse in a fixed basis. Second, current high-performance recovery algorithms are slow to converge, which limits CS to either non-real-time applications or scenarios where massive back-end computing is available. Read More

We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward builds on two compositional representations---random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationally efficient as traditional deep learning. Read More

More and more processes governing our lives use in some part an automatic decision step, where -- based on a feature vector derived from an applicant -- an algorithm has the decision power over the final outcome. Here we present a simple idea which gives some of the power back to the applicant by providing her with alternatives which would make the decision algorithm decide differently. It is based on a formalization reminiscent of methods used for evasion attacks, and consists in enumerating the subspaces where the classifiers decides the desired output. Read More

Dirichlet process mixture models (DPMM) are a cornerstone of Bayesian non-parametrics. While these models free from choosing the number of components a-priori, computationally attractive variational inference often reintroduces the need to do so, via a truncation on the variational distribution. In this paper we present a truncation-free hybrid inference for DPMM, combining the advantages of sampling-based MCMC and variational methods. Read More

This paper extends the recently proposed and theoretically justified iterative thresholding and $K$ residual means algorithm ITKrM to learning dicionaries from incomplete/masked training data (ITKrMM). It further adapts the algorithm to the presence of a low rank component in the data and provides a strategy for recovering this low rank component again from incomplete data. Several synthetic experiments show the advantages of incorporating information about the corruption into the algorithm. Read More

The problem of information fusion from multiple data-sets acquired by multimodal sensors has drawn significant research attention over the years. In this paper, we focus on a particular problem setting consisting of a physical phenomenon or a system of interest observed by multiple sensors. We assume that all sensors measure some aspects of the system of interest with additional sensor-specific and irrelevant components. Read More

We study large-scale kernel methods for acoustic modeling in speech recognition and compare their performance to deep neural networks (DNNs). We perform experiments on four speech recognition datasets, including the TIMIT and Broadcast News benchmark tasks, and compare these two types of models on frame-level performance metrics (accuracy, cross-entropy), as well as on recognition metrics (word/character error rate). In order to scale kernel methods to these large datasets, we use the random Fourier feature method of Rahimi and Recht (2007). Read More

The focus in this paper is Bayesian system identification based on noisy incomplete modal data where we can impose spatially-sparse stiffness changes when updating a structural model. To this end, based on a similar hierarchical sparse Bayesian learning model from our previous work, we propose two Gibbs sampling algorithms. The algorithms differ in their strategies to deal with the posterior uncertainty of the equation-error precision parameter, but both sample from the conditional posterior probability density functions (PDFs) for the structural stiffness parameters and system modal parameters. Read More

We consider a firm that sells a large number of products to its customers in an online fashion. Each product is described by a high dimensional feature vector, and the market value of a product is assumed to be linear in the values of its features. Parameters of the valuation model are unknown and can change over time. Read More

Maximum entropy modeling is a flexible and popular framework for formulating statistical models given partial knowledge. In this paper, rather than the traditional method of optimizing over the continuous density directly, we learn a smooth and invertible transformation that maps a simple distribution to the desired maximum entropy distribution. Doing so is nontrivial in that the objective being maximized (entropy) is a function of the density itself. Read More

Recurrent neural networks with various types of hidden units have been used to solve a diverse range of problems involving sequence data. Two of the most recent proposals, gated recurrent units (GRU) and minimal gated units (MGU), have shown comparable promising results on example public datasets. In this paper, we introduce three model variants of the minimal gated unit (MGU) which further simplify that design by reducing the number of parameters in the forget-gate dynamic equation. Read More