# Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Publications (50)

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## Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Publications

Detecting causal associations in time series datasets is a key challenge for novel insights into complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system or the human brain. Interactions in high-dimensional dynamical systems often involve time-delays, nonlinearity, and strong autocorrelations. These present major challenges for causal discovery techniques such as Granger causality leading to low detection power, biases, and unreliable hypothesis tests. Read More

Although iceberg models have been used for decades, they have received far more widespread attention in recent years, in part due to efforts to explicitly represent icebergs in climate models. This calls for increased scrutiny of all aspects of typical iceberg models. An important component of iceberg models is the representation of iceberg capsizing, or rolling. Read More

In the present work, we investigate the potential of fractional derivatives to model atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. We propose simple fractional differential equation models for the steady state spatial distribution of concentration of a non-reactive pollutant in Planetary Boundary Layer. We solve these models and we compare the solutions with a real experiment. Read More

The polar vortices play a crucial role in the formation of the ozone hole and can cause severe weather anomalies. Their boundaries, known as the vortex `edges', are typically identified via methods that are either frame-dependent or return non-material structures, and hence are unsuitable for assessing material transport barriers. Using two-dimensional velocity data on isentropic surfaces in the northern hemisphere, we show that elliptic Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) identify the correct outermost material surface dividing the coherent vortex core from the surrounding incoherent surf zone. Read More

Hydro-meteorological variables, like precipitation, streamflow are significantly influenced by various climatic factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Efficient water resources management requires an understanding of the effects of climate indices on the accurate predictability of precipitation. This study aims at understanding the standalone teleconnection between precipitation across India and the four climate indices, namely, Ni\~no 3. Read More

**Affiliations:**

^{1}JAD,

^{2}LAMA

This paper describes an efficient algorithm for computing steady two-dimensional surface gravity wave in irrotational motion. The algorithm complexity is O(N log N), N being the number of Fourier modes. The algorithm allows the arbitrary precision computation of waves in arbitrary depth, i. Read More

Vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings (S-SSWs) are investigated by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), a spherical barotropic quasi-geostrophic (QG) model, and equilibrium statistical mechanics. The QG model reproduces well the evolution of the composite potential vorticity (PV) field obtained from JRA-55 by considering a time-dependent effective topography given by the composite height field of the 550 K potential temperature surface. The zonal-wavenumber-2 component of the effective topography is the most essential feature required to observe the vortex splitting. Read More

Arctic sea ice extent has declined continuously for the past decade, owing partially to light absorption by black carbon (BC) and other impurities deposited on snow and the underlying pack. We present simulations for the contemporary period showing that the optical depth contributed by Arctic ice algal chlorophyll may be comparable during Boreal Spring to the corresponding values attributable to BC. The largest chlorophyll attenuation is obtained in the bottom layer, which supports pigment concentrations of about 300 to 1000 mg/m3 in the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. Read More

Short term unpredictability is discovered numerically for high Reynolds number fluid flows under periodic boundary conditions. Furthermore, the abundance of the short term unpredictability is also discovered. These discoveries support our theory that fully developed turbulence is constantly driven by such short term unpredictability. Read More

Using the formalism of the classical nucleation theory, we derive an expression for the reversible work $W_*$ of formation of a binary crystal nucleus in a liquid binary solution of non-stoichiometric composition (incongruent crystallization). Applied to the crystallization of aqueous nitric acid (NA) droplets, the new expression more adequately takes account of the effect of nitric acid vapor compared to the conventional expression of MacKenzie, Kulmala, Laaksonen, and Vesala (MKLV) [J.Geophys. Read More

The computation of transmission spectra is a central ingredient in the study of exoplanetary atmospheres. First, we revisit the theory of transmission spectra, unifying ideas from several workers in the literature. Transmission spectra lack an absolute normalization due to the a priori unknown value of a reference transit radius, which is tied to an unknown reference pressure. Read More

We present results of observation of Cygnus-A radiosource scintillation in the Earth's ionosphere in quiet and disturbed geomagnetic condition at Irkutsk incoherent scattering radar (IISR). Scintillation method applied for ionosphere testing at IISR confidently defines Fresnel frequency and power cutoff - the spectral characteristics usually related to the velocities and spatial spectra of ionospheric plasma irregularities. We also use IGFR magnetic field model in order to show relation between shape of discrete radio source scintillation spectra and direction to the radio source with respect to geomagnetic field. Read More

In this paper we survey the various implementations of a new data assimilation (downscaling) algorithm based on spatial coarse mesh measurements. As a paradigm, we demonstrate the application of this algorithm to the 3D Leray-$\alpha$ subgrid scale turbulence model. Most importantly, we use this paradigm to show that it is not always necessary that one has to collect coarse mesh measurements of all the state variables, that are involved in the underlying evolutionary system, in order to recover the corresponding exact reference solution. Read More

The specific impacts of El Ni\~no's two flavors, East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Ni\~no, have been studied intensively in recent years, mostly by applying linear statistical or composite analyses. These techniques, however, focus on average spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability and do not allow for a specific assessment of related extreme impacts. Here, we use event coincidence analysis to study the differential imprints of EP and CP types of both, El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na on global extreme precipitation patterns. Read More

An analytical wind turbine wake model is proposed to predict the wind velocity distribution for all distances downwind of a wind turbine, including the near-wake. This wake model augments the Jensen model and subsequent derivations thereof, and is a direct generalization of that recently proposed by Bastankhah and Porte-Agel. The model is derived by applying conservation of mass and momentum in the context of actuator disk theory, and assuming a distribution of the double-Gaussian type for the velocity deficit in the wake. Read More

Source localization is solved as a classification problem by training a feed-forward neural network (FNN) on ocean acoustic data. The pressure received by a vertical linear array is preprocessed by constructing a normalized sample covariance matrix (SCM), which is used as input for the FNN. Each neuron of the output layer represents a discrete source range. Read More

Remote sensing experiments require high-accuracy, preferably sub-percent, line intensities and in response to this need we present computed room temperature line lists for six symmetric isotopologues of carbon dioxide: $^{13}$C$^{16}$O$_2$, $^{14}$C$^{16}$O$_2$, $^{12}$C$^{17}$O$_2$, $^{12}$C$^{18}$O$_2$, $^{13}$C$^{17}$O$_2$ and $^{13}$C$^{18}$O$_2$, covering the range 0-8000 \cm. Our calculation scheme is based on variational nuclear motion calculations and on a reliability analysis of the generated line intensities. Rotation-vibration wavefunctions and energy levels are computed using the DVR3D software suite and a high quality semi-empirical potential energy surface (PES), followed by computation of intensities using an \abinitio\ dipole moment surface (DMS). Read More

Enstrophy, kinetic energy (KE) fluxes and spectra are estimated in different parts of the mid-latitudinal oceans via altimetry data. To begin with, using geostrophic currents derived from sea-surface height anomaly data provided by AVISO, we confirm the presence of a strong inverse flux of surface KE at scales larger than approximately 250 km. We then compute enstrophy fluxes to help develop a clearer picture of the underlying dynamics at smaller scales, i. Read More

The temporal fluctuations in global mean surface temperature is an example of a geophysical quantity which can be described using the notions of long-range persistence and scale invariance/scaling, but this description has suffered from lack of a generally accepted physical explanation. Processes with these statistical signatures can arise from non-linear effects, for instance through cascade-like energy transfer in turbulent fluids, but they can also be produced by linear models with scale-invariant impulse-response functions. This paper demonstrates that on time scales from months to centuries, the scale-invariant impulse-response function of global surface temperature can be explained from simple linear multi-box energy balance models. Read More

In this paper we quantify the performances of an automated weather forecast system implemented on the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) site at Mt. Graham (Arizona) in forecasting the main atmospheric parameters close to the ground. The system employs a mesoscale non-hydrostatic numerical model (Meso-Nh). Read More

We use an extensive NOAA database of hourly precipitation data from 5995 stations in the 48 contiguous United States over the period 1949--2009 to investigate possible trends in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, defined as periods of intense precipitation. The frequency and intensity of these events are quantified by a dimensionless storminess, defined as the variance of the hourly rainfall at a site normalized by the square of the mean rainfall at that site. For 1722 stations with sufficient data, we compute the rate of change of the logarithm of the storminess at each station and set bounds on its mean (over stations) trend; use of the logarithms weights trends at calm stations equally to those at stormy stations and enhances the statistical power of the mean. Read More

A drop of water that freezes from the outside-in presents an intriguing problem: the expansion of water upon freezing is incompatible with the self-confinement by a rigid ice shell. Using high-speed imaging we show that this conundrum is resolved through an intermittent fracturing of the brittle ice shell and cavitation in the enclosed liquid, culminating in an explosion of the partially frozen droplet. We propose a basic model to elucidate the interplay between a steady build-up of stresses and their fast release. Read More

This study examines the impact that solar activity has on model results during geomagnetic quiet time for the ionosphere/thermosphere models: the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model (CTIPe) and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). Using varying F10.7 flux values as a measurement of solar activity, the models were run over a two-day period with the constant parameters Kp= 2, n= 3 cm^3, and v= 400 km/s. Read More

Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is non-trivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here, we propose a method that does not rely on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the ensemble member predictions. Read More

The issue of the equilibrium-range formation in the wind-wave spectrum is studied by a direct numerical simulation. The evolution equation of wind-wave spectrum is numerically solved with using an exact calculation of the Hasselmann kinetic integral and involving various modifications of known parametrizations for the wave-pumping mechanism due to wind and the wave-dissipation mechanism due viscosity of the upper layer. It is shown that the balance of the last two mechanisms is responsible for a formation of stationary part of the wind-wave spectrum. Read More

The rise in global mean temperature is an incomplete description of warming. For many purposes, including agriculture and human life, temperature extremes may be more important than temperature means and changes in local extremes may be more important than mean global changes. We define a nonparametric statistic to describe extreme temperature behavior by quantifying the frequency of local daily all-time highs and lows, normalized by their frequency in the null hypothesis of no climate change. Read More

We review some recent methods of subgrid-scale parameterization used in the context of climate modeling. These methods are developed to take into account (subgrid) processes playing an important role in the correct representation of the atmospheric and climate variability. We illustrate these methods on a simple stochastic triad system relevant for the atmospheric and climate dynamics, and we show in particular that the stability properties of the underlying dynamics of the subgrid processes has a considerable impact on their performances. Read More

Mini arrays are commonly used for infrasonic and seismic studies. Here we report for the first time the detection and mapping of distant lightning discharges in the sky with a mini array. The array has a baseline to wavelength ratio $\sim$4. Read More

The dynamic and thermal regimes of climate are regulated by an exchange of energy and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. The role exerted by surface waves on this interchange is particularly enigmatic. Waves induce turbulence in the upper ocean by breaking and through Langmuir circulations. Read More

Ocean wave energy is a new renewable energy resource which is going to become one of the reliable and alternative resources for fossil fuels during recent decades. The majority of studies have focused on extract wave energy at an effective rate; whilst, there are a few studies to explore the hydrodynamic of wave and surge wave energy converters. In this study a 2D numerical model based on RANS equations is closured with SST turbulence model employed to simulate the hydrodynamic of the flap type wave energy devices. Read More

A number of transiting exoplanets have featureless transmission spectra that might suggest the presence of clouds at high altitudes. A realistic cloud model is necessary to understand the atmospheric conditions under which such high-altitude clouds can form. In this study, we present a new cloud model that takes into account the microphysics of both condensation and coalescence. Read More

A popular demonstration experiment in optics uses a round-bottom flask filled with water to project a circular rainbow on a screen with a hole through which the flask is illuminated. We show how the vessel's wall shifts the second-order and first-order bows towards each other and consequentially narrows down Alexander's dark band. We address the challenge this introduces in producing Alexander's dark band, and explain the importance of a sufficient distance of the flask to the screen. Read More

The default SBU-YLIN scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is proved having a limited capability of producing a reasonable cold pool in squall line simulations. With the help of wealthy observation data of a squall line, we finally improve it by: adding a density factor to the precipitating ice; modify the rain evaporation scheme and correct the saturation adjustment process. The improved SBU-YLIN scheme could produce a reasonable cold pool. Read More

The Fisher Ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population distribution and the trend in the temperature. I show that the trend in the global area-weighted average surface air temperature is different in key details from the population-weighted trend. Read More

A common way to simulate the transport and spread of pollutants in the atmosphere is via stochastic Lagrangian dispersion models. Mathematically, these models describe turbulent transport processes with stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The computational bottleneck is the Monte Carlo algorithm, which simulates the motion of a large number of model particles in a turbulent velocity field; for each particle, a trajectory is calculated with a numerical timestepping method. Read More

In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations contain a Markov term, a memory term and a term suggestive of stochastic noise. Read More

Constructing efficient and accurate parameterizations of sub-gridscale processes is a central area of interest in the numerical modelling of geophysical fluids. Using a modified version of the two-level Lorenz '96 model, we present here a proof of concept of a scale-adaptive parameterisation constructed using statistical mechanical arguments. By a suitable use of the Ruelle response theory, it is possible to derive explicitly a parameterization for the fast variables that translates into deterministic, stochastic and non-markovian contributions to the equations on motion of the variables of interest. Read More

Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Read More

We apply the Postprocessing Galerkin method to a recently introduced continuous data assimilation (downscaling) algorithm for obtaining a numerical approximation of the solution of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations corresponding to given measurements from a coarse spatial mesh. Under suitable conditions on the relaxation (nudging) parameter, the resolution of the coarse spatial mesh and the resolution of the numerical scheme, we obtain uniform in time estimates for the error between the numerical approximation given by the Postprocessing Galerkin method and the reference solution corresponding to the measurements. Our results are valid for a large class of interpolant operators, including low Fourier modes and local averages over finite volume elements. Read More

Sparse representations of atmospheric aerosols are needed for efficient regional- and global-scale chemical transport models. Here we introduce a new framework for representing aerosol distributions, based on the quadrature method of moments. Given a set of moment constraints, we show how linear programming, combined with an entropy-inspired cost function, can be used to construct optimized quadrature representations of aerosol distributions. Read More

This article provides a survey on some main results and recent developments in the mathematical theory of water waves. We discuss the mathematical modeling of water waves and give an overview of local and global well--posedness results for the model equations. Moreover, we present reduced models in various parameter regimes for the approximate description of the motion of typical wave profiles and discuss the mathematically rigorous justification of the validity of these models. Read More

An analytical linear solution of the fully compressible Euler equations is found, in the particular case of a stationary two dimensional flow that passes over an orographic feature with small height-width ratio. A method based on the covariant formulation of the Euler equations is used, and the analytical vertical velocity as well as the horizontal velocity, density and pressure, are obtained. The analytical solution is tested against a numerical model in three different regimes, hydrostatic, non-hydrostatic and potential flow. Read More

The observed pseudo-periodic reversal of the upper layer circulation of the Ionian Sea has been assumed to be related to some internal feedback processes (density driven) by the so called BiOS (Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System) hypothesis. The mechanism seems to be very well described by a non-linear oscillator dynamical system. By setting the state variables as the salinity of Adriatic deep water and the sea level anomaly in the Ionian region a Van der Pol equation has been obtained. Read More

We study the problem of sinking particles in a realistic oceanic flow, with major energetic structures in the mesoscale, focussing in the range of particle sizes and densities appropriate for marine biogenic particles. Our aim is to unify the theoretical investigations with its applications in the oceanographic context and considering a mesoscale simulation of the oceanic velocity field. By using the equation of motion of small particles in a fluid flow, we assess the influence of physical processes such as the Coriolis force and the inertia of the particles, and we conclude that they represent negligible corrections to the most important terms, which are passive motion with the velocity of the flow, and a constant added vertical velocity due to gravity. Read More

The SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structures) instrument onboard the InSight mission to Mars is the critical instrument for determining the interior structure of Mars, the current level of tectonic activity and the meteorite flux. Meeting the performance requirements of the SEIS instrument is vital to successfully achieve these mission objectives. Here we analyse in-situ wind measurements from previous Mars space missions to understand the wind environment that we are likely to encounter on Mars, and then we use an elastic ground deformation model to evaluate the mechanical noise contributions on the SEIS instrument due to the interaction between the Martian winds and the InSight lander. Read More

Wind drives large-scale ocean currents by imparting momentum at the sea surface. This force is almost entirely balanced by topographic form stress (that is the correlation of bottom pressure and topographic slope). The direct effect of bottom or skin friction in turbulent boundary layers is negligible for the momentum balance. Read More

Stratified turbulence is characterized by strong anisotropy and a red energy spectrum. Moreover, in many cases the energetic large scales consist of coherent horizontal structures such as vertically sheared horizontal flows, also called stacked jets. Examples of such jets in stratified geophysical flows include the equatorial deep jets in the oceans and the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere. Read More

This paper is concerned with the long-time behavior of solutions for the three dimensional primitive equations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere dynamics in an unbounded domain. Since the Sobolev embedding is no longer compact in an unbounded domain, we cannot obtain the asymptotical compactness of the semigroup generated by problem (2.4)-(2. Read More

The influence of deep convection on water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), the region just below the high ($\sim$18 km), cold tropical tropopause, remains an outstanding question in atmospheric science. Moisture transport to this region is important for climate projections because it drives the formation of local cirrus (ice) clouds, which have a disproportionate impact on the Earth's radiative balance. Deep cumulus towers carrying large volumes of ice are known to reach the TTL, but their importance to the water budget has been debated for several decades. Read More

The response of the nonlinear shallow water equations (SWE) on a sphere to tropical vorticity forcing is examined with an emphasis on momentum fluxes and the emergence of a superrotating (SR) state. Fixing the radiative damping and momentum drag timescales to be of the order of a few days, a state of SR is shown to emerge under steady large-scale and random small-scale vorticity forcing. In the first example, the stationary response to a pair of equal and oppositely signed vortices placed on the equator is considered. Read More