# Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Publications (50)

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## Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Publications

Mini arrays are commonly used for infrasonic and seismic studies. Here we report for the first time the detection and mapping of distant lightning discharges in the sky with a mini array. The array has a baseline to wavelength ratio $\sim$4. Read More

The dynamic and thermal regimes of climate are regulated by an exchange of energy and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. The role exerted by surface waves on this interchange is particularly enigmatic. Waves induce turbulence in the upper ocean by breaking and through Langmuir circulations. Read More

Ocean wave energy is a new renewable energy resource which is going to become one of the reliable and alternative resources for fossil fuels during recent decades. The majority of studies have focused on extract wave energy at an effective rate; whilst, there are a few studies to explore the hydrodynamic of wave and surge wave energy converters. In this study a 2D numerical model based on RANS equations is closured with SST turbulence model employed to simulate the hydrodynamic of the flap type wave energy devices. Read More

A number of transiting exoplanets have featureless transmission spectra that might suggest the presence of clouds at high altitudes. A realistic cloud model is necessary to understand the atmospheric conditions under which such high-altitude clouds can form. In this study, we present a new cloud model that takes into account the microphysics of both condensation and coalescence. Read More

A popular demonstration experiment in optics uses a round-bottom flask filled with water to project a circular rainbow on a screen with a hole through which the flask is illuminated. We show how the vessel's wall shifts the second-order and first-order bows towards each other and consequentially narrows down Alexander's dark band. We address the challenge this introduces in producing Alexander's dark band, and explain the importance of a sufficient distance of the flask to the screen. Read More

The default SBU-YLIN scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is proved having a limited capability of producing a reasonable cold pool in squall line simulations. With the help of wealthy observation data of a squall line, we finally improve it by: adding a density factor to the precipitating ice; modify the rain evaporation scheme and correct the saturation adjustment process. The improved SBU-YLIN scheme could produce a reasonable cold pool. Read More

The Fisher Ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population distribution and the trend in the temperature. I show that the trend in the global area-weighted average surface air temperature is different in key details from the population-weighted trend. Read More

A common way to simulate the transport and spread of pollutants in the atmosphere is via stochastic Lagrangian dispersion models. Mathematically, these models describe turbulent transport processes with stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The computational bottleneck is the Monte Carlo algorithm, which simulates the motion of a large number of model particles in a turbulent velocity field; for each particle, a trajectory is calculated with a numerical timestepping method. Read More

In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations contain a Markov term, a memory term and a term suggestive of stochastic noise. Read More

Constructing efficient and accurate parameterizations of sub-gridscale processes is a central area of interest in the numerical modelling of geophysical fluids. Using a modified version of the two-level Lorenz '96 model, we present here a proof of concept of a scale-adaptive parameterisation constructed using statistical mechanical arguments. By a suitable use of the Ruelle response theory, it is possible to derive explicitly a parameterization for the fast variables that translates into deterministic, stochastic and non-markovian contributions to the equations on motion of the variables of interest. Read More

Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries, but has never been incorporated into a set of probabilistic sea level projections. Read More

We apply the Postprocessing Galerkin method to a recently introduced continuous data assimilation (downscaling) algorithm for obtaining a numerical approximation of the solution of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations corresponding to given measurements from a coarse spatial mesh. Under suitable conditions on the relaxation (nudging) parameter, the resolution of the coarse spatial mesh and the resolution of the numerical scheme, we obtain uniform in time estimates for the error between the numerical approximation given by the Postprocessing Galerkin method and the reference solution corresponding to the measurements. Our results are valid for a large class of interpolant operators, including low Fourier modes and local averages over finite volume elements. Read More

Sparse representations of atmospheric aerosols are needed for efficient regional- and global-scale chemical transport models. Here we introduce a new framework for representing aerosol distributions, based on the quadrature method of moments. Given a set of moment constraints, we show how linear programming, combined with an entropy-inspired cost function, can be used to construct optimized quadrature representations of aerosol distributions. Read More

This article provides a survey on some main results and recent developments in the mathematical theory of water waves. We discuss the mathematical modeling of water waves and give an overview of local and global well--posedness results for the model equations. Moreover, we present reduced models in various parameter regimes for the approximate description of the motion of typical wave profiles and discuss the mathematically rigorous justification of the validity of these models. Read More

An analytical linear solution of the fully compressible Euler equations is found, in the particular case of a stationary two dimensional flow that passes over an orographic feature with small height-width ratio. A method based on the covariant formulation of the Euler equations is used, and the analytical vertical velocity as well as the horizontal velocity, density and pressure, are obtained. The analytical solution is tested against a numerical model in three different regimes, hydrostatic, non-hydrostatic and potential flow. Read More

The observed pseudo-periodic reversal of the upper layer circulation of the Ionian Sea has been assumed to be related to some internal feedback processes (density driven) by the so called BiOS (Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System) hypothesis. The mechanism seems to be very well described by a non-linear oscillator dynamical system. By setting the state variables as the salinity of Adriatic deep water and the sea level anomaly in the Ionian region a Van der Pol equation has been obtained. Read More

We study the problem of sinking particles in a realistic oceanic flow, with major energetic structures in the mesoscale, focussing in the range of particle sizes and densities appropriate for marine biogenic particles. Our aim is to unify the theoretical investigations with its applications in the oceanographic context and considering a mesoscale simulation of the oceanic velocity field. By using the equation of motion of small particles in a fluid flow, we assess the influence of physical processes such as the Coriolis force and the inertia of the particles, and we conclude that they represent negligible corrections to the most important terms, which are passive motion with the velocity of the flow, and a constant added vertical velocity due to gravity. Read More

The SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structures) instrument onboard the InSight mission to Mars is the critical instrument for determining the interior structure of Mars, the current level of tectonic activity and the meteorite flux. Meeting the performance requirements of the SEIS instrument is vital to successfully achieve these mission objectives. Here we analyse in-situ wind measurements from previous Mars space missions to understand the wind environment that we are likely to encounter on Mars, and then we use an elastic ground deformation model to evaluate the mechanical noise contributions on the SEIS instrument due to the interaction between the Martian winds and the InSight lander. Read More

Wind drives large-scale ocean currents by imparting momentum at the sea surface. This force is almost entirely balanced by topographic form stress (that is the correlation of bottom pressure and topographic slope). The direct effect of bottom or skin friction in turbulent boundary layers is negligible for the momentum balance. Read More

Stratified turbulence is characterized by strong anisotropy and a red energy spectrum. Moreover, in many cases the energetic large scales consist of coherent horizontal structures such as vertically sheared horizontal flows, also called stacked jets. Examples of such jets in stratified geophysical flows include the equatorial deep jets in the oceans and the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere. Read More

This paper is concerned with the long-time behavior of solutions for the three dimensional primitive equations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere dynamics in an unbounded domain. Since the Sobolev embedding is no longer compact in an unbounded domain, we cannot obtain the asymptotical compactness of the semigroup generated by problem (2.4)-(2. Read More

The influence of deep convection on water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), the region just below the high ($\sim$18 km), cold tropical tropopause, remains an outstanding question in atmospheric science. Moisture transport to this region is important for climate projections because it drives the formation of local cirrus (ice) clouds, which have a disproportionate impact on the Earth's radiative balance. Deep cumulus towers carrying large volumes of ice are known to reach the TTL, but their importance to the water budget has been debated for several decades. Read More

The response of the nonlinear shallow water equations (SWE) on a sphere to tropical vorticity forcing is examined with an emphasis on momentum fluxes and the emergence of a superrotating (SR) state. Fixing the radiative damping and momentum drag timescales to be of the order of a few days, a state of SR is shown to emerge under steady large-scale and random small-scale vorticity forcing. In the first example, the stationary response to a pair of equal and oppositely signed vortices placed on the equator is considered. Read More

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is one of the most important greenhouse gases after water vapor (H2O) which plays significant role in the climate process. Accurate space-based measurement of CO2 is of great significance in inferring the location of CO2 sources and sinks. Uncertainties in greenhouse gases (GHG) retrieval process must be minimized to accurately infer the actual amount of the atmospheric species. Read More

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Southern Ocean is investigated using hydrographic observations combined with satellite observations of sea-surface height. A three-dimensional (spatial and vertical) estimate of the isopycnal eddy-diffusivity in the Southern Ocean is obtained using the theory of Ferrari & Nikurashin (2010), that includes the influence of suppression of the diffusivity by the strong, time-mean flows. It is found that the eddy diffusivity is enhanced at depth, reaching a maximum at the "critical layer" near 1000m. Read More

We develop a stochastic parametrization, based on a `simple' deterministic model for the dynamics of steady longshore currents, that produces ensembles that are statistically consistent with field observations of these currents. Unlike deterministic models, stochastic parameterization incorporates randomness and hence can only match the observations in a statistical sense. Unlike statistical emulators, in which the model is tuned to the statistical structure of the observation, stochastic parametrization are not directly tuned to match the statistics of the observations. Read More

**Affiliations:**

^{1}INAF - Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri,

^{2}INAF - Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri,

^{3}INAF - Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri,

^{4}INAF - Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri

One of the main goals of the feasibility study MOSE (MOdellig ESO Sites) is to evaluate the performances of a method conceived to forecast the optical turbulence above the ESO sites of the Very Large Telescope and the European-Extremely Large Telescope in Chile. The method implied the use of a dedicated code conceived for the optical turbulence (OT) called Astro-Meso-Nh. In this paper we present results we obtained at conclusion of this project concerning the performances of this method in forecasting the most relevant parameters related to the optical turbulence (CN2, seeing , isoplanatic angle theta_0 and wavefront coherence time tau_0). Read More

The electromagnetic wave propagation velocity at low radio frequencies is an important input parameter for lightning location systems that use time of arrival (TOA) method. This velocity is normally fixed at or near the speed of light. However, this study finds that the radio waves from two submarine communication transmitters at 20. Read More

It has been recently claimed (Zolotova and Ponyavin, Solar Phys., 291, 2869, 2016, ZP16 henceforth) that a mid-latitude optical phenomenon, which took place over the city of Astrakhan in July 1670, according to Russian chronicles, was a strong aurora borealis. If this was true, it would imply a very strong or even severe geomagnetic storm during the quietest part of the Maunder minimum. Read More

An algorithm for the generation of non-uniform, locally-orthogonal staggered unstructured grids on spheroidal geometries is described. This technique is designed to generate high-quality staggered Voronoi/Delaunay dual meshes appropriate for general circulation modelling on the sphere, including applications to atmospheric simulation, ocean-modelling and numerical weather predication. Using a recently developed Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique, a method for the construction of guaranteed-quality, unstructured spheroidal Delaunay triangulations is introduced. Read More

Urbanization is one of the extreme process that increases uncertainty in future climate projections. Flow regimes of mesoscale circulations associated with surface heating due to urbanization have been investigated using a wavelet based computational fluid dynamics~(CFD) model. The results of our numerical model have been validated against that of a laboratory model, as well as reference numerical simulations. Read More

Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate networks. We find that abrupt transitions of the order parameter usually occur $\sim$1 year before El Ni\~{n}o ~ events, suggesting that they can be used as early warning precursors of El Ni\~{n}o. Read More

In this work two soft computing methods, Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming, are proposed in order to forecast the mean temperature that will occur in future seasons. The area in which the soft computing techniques were applied is that of the surroundings of the town of Benevento, in the south of Italy, having geographic coordinates (lat. 41{\deg}07'50"N; long. Read More

On October 20th 2016, Daesh (Islamic State) set fire to the sulphur production site Al-Mishraq as the battle of Mosul became more intense. A huge plume of toxic sulphur dioxide and hydrogen sulphide caused comprising casualties. The intensity of the SO2 release was reaching levels of minor volcanic eruptions which was observed by several satellites. Read More

We study time evolution of the relationship between sunspot numbers and global temperatures between 1880 and 2016 using wavelet coherence framework. The results suggest that the relationship is stable in time. Changes in the sunspot numbers precede changes in the temperatures by more than two years as suggested by the wavelet phase differences. Read More

We formulate a nonlinear synergistic theory of coevolutionary systems, disentangling and explaining dynamic complexity in terms of fundamental processes for optimised data analysis and dynamic model design: Dynamic Source Analysis (DSA). DSA provides a nonlinear dynamical basis for spatiotemporal datasets or dynamical models, eliminating redundancies and expressing the system in terms of the smallest number of fundamental processes and interactions without loss of information. This optimises model design in dynamical systems, expressing complex coevolution in simple synergistic terms, yielding physically meaningful spatial and temporal structures. Read More

It is well acknowledged that the sequence of glacial-interglacial cycles is paced by the astronomical forcing. However, how much is the sequence robust against natural fluctuations associated, for example, with the chaotic motions of atmosphere and oceans? In this article, the stability of the glacial-interglacial cycles is investigated on the basis of simple conceptual models. Specifically, we study the influence of additive white Gaussian noise on the sequence of the glacial cycles generated by stochastic versions of several low-order dynamical system models proposed in the literature. Read More

Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. This change can be consitently applied to all fluid dynamics evolution laws. Read More

Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. In this paper, simplified geophysical dynamics are derived from a Boussinesq model under location uncertainty. Read More

We analyse the multiscale properties of energy-conserving upwind-stabilised finite element discretisations of the two-dimensional incompressible Euler equations. We focus our attention on two particular methods: the Lie derivative discretisation introduced in Natale and Cotter (2016a) and the SUPG discretisation of the vorticity advection equation. Such discretisations provide control on enstrophy by modelling different types of scale interactions. Read More

We get point vortices dynamics equations on a rotating sphere surface directly from the hydrodynamic equations as representing their weak exact solution contrary to the conventional case of the use of a kinematic relationship between a given singular vortex field and velocity field. It is first time that the effect of a sphere rotation on the vortices interaction is accounted for in exact form. We show that only the stream function of a vortex pair of antipodal vortices (APV), and only it satisfies the original three-dimensional hydrodynamics equations on a sphere. Read More

The concept of scalability analysis of numerical parallel applications has been revisited, with the specific goals defined for the performance estimation of research applications. A series of Community Climate Model System (CCSM) numerical simulations were used to test the several MPI implementations, determine optimal use of the system resources, and their scalability. The scaling capacity and model throughput performance metrics for $N$ cores showed a log-linear behavior approximated by a power fit in the form of $C(N)=bN^a$, where $a$ and $b$ are two empirical constants. Read More

Over the western United States, the hazards posed to aviation operations by convective storm-generated downbursts have been extensively documented. Other significant hazards posed by convective downbursts over the intermountain western U.S. Read More

The KnnCAD Version 4 weather generator algorithm for nonparametric, multisite simulations of temperature and precipitation data is presented. The K-nearest neighbour weather generator essentially reshuffles the historical data, with replacement. In KnnCAD Version 4, a block resampling scheme is introduced to preserve the temporal correlation structure in temperature data. Read More

We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev. Read More

Mangrove forests store high densities of organic carbon compared to other forested ecosystems1. Such high carbon storage coupled with their rate of deforestation means that mangroves can contribute to global carbon emissions and are candidates for Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes. This study quantifies two important datasets required for emissions and PES reporting: 1) annual mangrove carbon stocks from 2000 to 2012 at the global, national, and sub-national level; and 2) global carbon emissions resulting from deforestation within this period. Read More

The article deals with the analysis of color distribution in noctilucent clouds (NLC) in the sky based on multi-wavelength (RGB) CCD-photometry provided with the all-sky camera in Lovozero in the north of Russia (68.0 deg N, 35.1 deg E) during the bright expanded NLC performance in the night of August 12, 2016. Read More

The stochastic Arctic sea ice model described as a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation (ODE) is useful in explaining the seasonal variability of Arctic sea ice. However, to be nearer to realistic approximations we consider the inclusion of long-term forcing implying the effect of slowly-varying ocean or atmospheric low-frequencies. In this research, we rely on the equivalent Fokker-Planck equation instead of the stochastic ODE owing to the advantages of the Fokker-Planck equation in dealing with higher moments calculations. Read More

The results obtained by the plasma physics community for the validation and the prediction of turbulence and transport in magnetized plasma come mainly from the use of very CPU-consuming particle-in-cell or (gyro)kinetic codes which naturally include non-Maxwellian kinetic effects. To date, fluid codes are not considered to be relevant for the description of these kinetic effects. Here, after revisiting the limitations of the current fluid theory developed in the 19th century, we generalize the fluid theory including kinetic effects such as non-Maxwellian super-thermal tails with as few fluid equations as possible. Read More

We consider the problem of large wave prediction in two-dimensional water waves. Such waves form due to the synergistic effect of dispersive mixing of smaller wave groups and the action of localized nonlinear wave interactions that leads to focusing. Instead of a direct simulation approach, we rely on the decomposition of the wave field into a discrete set of localized wave groups with optimal length scales and amplitudes. Read More