Sidney I. Resnick

Sidney I. Resnick
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Sidney I. Resnick

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Mathematics - Probability (21)
Statistics - Theory (13)
Mathematics - Statistics (13)
Statistics - Applications (2)
Statistics - Methodology (1)

Publications Authored By Sidney I. Resnick

Preferential attachment is an appealing mechanism for modeling power-law behavior of the degree distributions in directed social networks. In this paper, we consider methods for fitting a 5-parameter linear preferential model to network data under two data scenarios. In the case where full history of the network formation is given, we derive the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters and show that it is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. Read More

For integers $n\geq r$, we treat the $r$th largest of a sample of size $n$ as an $\mathbb{R}^\infty$-valued stochastic process in $r$ which we denote $\mathbf{M}^{(r)}$. We show that the sequence regarded in this way satisfies the Markov property. We go on to study the asymptotic behaviour of $\mathbf{M}^{(r)}$ as $r\to\infty$, and, borrowing from classical extreme value theory, show that left-tail domain of attraction conditions on the underlying distribution of the sample guarantee weak limits for both the range of $\mathbf{M}^{(r)}$ and $\mathbf{M}^{(r)}$ itself, after norming and centering. Read More

Data exhibiting heavy-tails in one or more dimensions is often studied using the framework of regular variation. In a multivariate setting this requires identifying specific forms of dependence in the data; this means identifying that the data tends to concentrate along particular directions and does not cover the full space. This is observed in various data sets from finance, insurance, network traffic, social networks, etc. Read More

Regular variation of a multivariate measure with a Lebesgue density implies the regular variation of its density provided the density satisfies some regularity conditions. Unlike the univariate case, the converse also requires regularity conditions. We extend these arguments to discrete mass functions and their associated measures using the concept that the the mass function can be embedded in a continuous density function. Read More

Preferential attachment in a directed scale-free graph is widely used to model the evolution of social networks. Statistical analyses of social networks often relies on node based data rather than conventional repeated sampling. For our directed edge model with preferential attachment, we prove asymptotic normality of node counts based on a martingale construction and a martingale central limit theorem. Read More

Preferential attachment is a widely adopted paradigm for understanding the dynamics of social networks. Formal statistical inference,for instance GLM techniques, and model verification methods will require knowing test statistics are asymptotically normal even though node or count based network data is nothing like classical data from independently replicated experiments. We therefore study asymptotic normality of degree counts for a sequence of growing simple undirected preferential attachment graphs. Read More

Abel-Tauberian theorems relate power law behavior of distributions and their transforms. We formulate and prove a multivariate version for non-standard regularly varying measures on $\mathbb{R}_+^p$ and then apply it to prove that the joint distribution of in- and out-degree in a directed edge preferential attachement model has jointly regularly varying tails. Read More

For the directed edge preferential attachment network growth model studied by Bollobas et al. (2003) and Krapivsky and Redner (2001), we prove that the joint distribution of in-degree and out-degree has jointly regularly varying tails. Typically the marginal tails of the in-degree distribution and the out-degree distribution have different regular variation indices and so the joint regular variation is non-standard. Read More

We review definitions of multivariate regular variation (MRV) and hidden regular variation (HRV) for distributions of random vectors and then summarize methods for generating models exhibiting both properties. We also discuss diagnostic techniques that detect these properties in multivariate data and indicate when models exhibiting both MRV and HRV are plausible fits for the data. We illustrate our techniques on simulated data and also two real Internet data sets. Read More

We develop a framework for regularly varying measures on complete separable metric spaces $\mathbb{S}$ with a closed cone $\mathbb{C}$ removed, extending material in Hult & Lindskog (2006), Das, Mitra & Resnick (2013). Our framework provides a flexible way to consider hidden regular variation and allows simultaneous regular variation properties to exist at different scales and provides potential for more accurate estimation of probabilities of risk regions. We apply our framework to iid random variables in $\mathbb{R}_+^\infty$ with marginal distributions having regularly varying tails and to c\`adl\`ag L\'evy processes whose L\'evy measures have regularly varying tails. Read More

The classical approach to multivariate extreme value modelling assumes that the joint distribution belongs to a multivariate domain of attraction. This requires each marginal distribution be individually attracted to a univariate extreme value distribution. An apparently more flexible extremal model for multivariate data was proposed by Heffernan and Tawn under which not all the components are required to belong to an extremal domain of attraction but assumes instead the existence of an asymptotic approximation to the conditional distribution of the random vector given one of the components is extreme. Read More

The tail chain of a Markov chain can be used to model the dependence between extreme observations. For a positive recurrent Markov chain, the tail chain aids in describing the limit of a sequence of point processes $\{N_n,n\geq1\}$, consisting of normalized observations plotted against scaled time points. Under fairly general conditions on extremal behaviour, $\{N_n\}$ converges to a cluster Poisson process. Read More

An asymptotic model for extreme behavior of certain Markov chains is the "tail chain". Generally taking the form of a multiplicative random walk, it is useful in deriving extremal characteristics such as point process limits. We place this model in a more general context, formulated in terms of extreme value theory for transition kernels, and extend it by formalizing the distinction between extreme and non-extreme states. Read More

Hidden regular variation is a sub-model of multivariate regular variation and facilitates accurate estimation of joint tail probabilities. We generalize the model of hidden regular variation to what we call hidden domain of attraction. We exhibit examples that illustrate the need for a more general model and discuss detection and estimation techniques. Read More

Multivariate regular variation plays a role assessing tail risk in diverse applications such as finance, telecommunications, insurance and environmental science. The classical theory, being based on an asymptotic model, sometimes leads to inaccurate and useless estimates of probabilities of joint tail regions. This problem can be partly ameliorated by using hidden regular variation [Resnick, 2002, Mitra and Resnick, 2010]. Read More

In risk analysis, the mean excess plot is a commonly used exploratory plotting technique for confirming iid data is consistent with a generalized Pareto assumption for the underlying distribution, since in the presence of such a distribution thresholded data have a mean excess plot that is roughly linear. Does any other class of distributions share this linearity of the plot? Under some extra assumptions, we are able to conclude that only the generalized Pareto family has this property. Read More

Various empirical and theoretical studies indicate that cumulative network traffic is a Gaussian process. However, depending on whether the intensity at which sessions are initiated is large or small relative to the session duration tail, Mikosch et al. (Ann Appl Probab, 12:23-68, 2002) and Kaj and Taqqu (Progress Probab, 60:383-427, 2008) have shown that traffic at large time scales can be approximated by either fractional Brownian motion (fBm) or stable Levy motion. Read More

We approximate the distribution of total expenditure of a retail company over warranty claims incurred in a fixed period [0, T], say the following quarter. We consider two kinds of warranty policies, namely, the non-renewing free replacement warranty policy and the non-renewing pro-rata warranty policy. Our approximation holds under modest assumptions on the distribution of the sales process of the warranted item and the nature of arrivals of warranty claims. Read More

Hidden regular variation defines a subfamily of distributions satisfying multivariate regular variation on $\mathbb{E} = [0, \infty]^d \backslash \{(0,0, ... Read More

A widely used tool in the study of risk, insurance and extreme values is the mean excess plot. One use is for validating a generalized Pareto model for the excess distribution. This paper investigates some theoretical and practical aspects of the use of the mean excess plot. Read More

We refine a stimulating study by Sarvotham et al. [2005] which highlighted the influence of peak transmission rate on network burstiness. From TCP packet headers, we amalgamate packets into sessions where each session is characterized by a 5-tuple (S, D, R, Peak R, Initiation T)=(total payload, duration, average transmission rate, peak transmission rate, initiation time). Read More

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value model assumes a domain of attraction condition on a sub-collection of the components of a multivariate random vector. This model has been studied in \cite{heffernan:tawn:2004,heffernan:resnick:2007,das:resnick:2008a}. Read More

We study the tail behavior of the distribution of the sum of asymptotically independent risks whose marginal distributions belong to the maximal domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. We impose conditions on the distribution of the risks $(X,Y)$ such that $P(X + Y > x) \sim (const)P (X > x)$. With the further assumption of non-negativity of the risks, the result is extended to more than two risks. Read More

Multivariate extreme value theory assumes a multivariate domain of attraction condition for the distribution of a random vector. This necessitates that each component satisfies a marginal domain of attraction condition. An approximation of the joint distribution of a random vector obtained by conditioning on one of the components being extreme was developed by Heffernan and Tawn [12] and further studied by Heffernan and Resnick [11]. Read More

We attempt to bring some modest unity to three subareas of heavy tail analysis and extreme value theory: limit laws for componentwise maxima of iid random variables;hidden regular variation and asymptotic independence;conditioned limit laws when one component of a random vector is extreme. The common theme is multivariate regular variation on a cone and the three cases cited come from specifying the cones $[0,\infty]^d\setminus \{\boldsymbol 0\};(0,\infty]^d;$ and $[0,\infty]\times (0,\infty]$. Read More

The QQ plot is a commonly used technique for informally deciding whether a univariate random sample of size n comes from a specified distribution F. The QQ plot graphs the sample quantiles against the theoretical quantiles of F and then a visual check is made to see whether or not the points are close to a straight line. For a location and scale family of distributions, the intercept and slope of the straight line provide estimates for the shift and scale parameters of the distribution respectively. Read More

Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation provides a rich description of extremal dependence in the case of asymptotic dependence, but fails to distinguish between exact independence and asymptotic independence. Hidden regular variation addresses this problem by requiring components of the random vector to be simultaneously large but on a smaller scale than the scale for the marginal distributions. Read More