P. D. Boakes

P. D. Boakes
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P. D. Boakes

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Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (3)
Physics - Space Physics (2)
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (1)

Publications Authored By P. D. Boakes

We present a major step forward towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the terrestrial planets, including the Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over almost a full solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results on 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) with data from 8 years of observations by 5 spacecraft in situ in the solar wind, thereby gathering over 600 independent in situ CME detections. Read More

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, Bz. Predicting the strength and duration of Bz inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, which forms the so-called Bz problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, Bz and the resulting Dst index at Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (< 1AU). Read More

The severe geomagnetic effects of solar storms or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are to a large degree determined by their propagation direction with respect to Earth. There is a lack of understanding of the processes that determine their non-radial propagation. Here we present a synthesis of data from seven different space missions of a fast CME, which originated in an active region near the disk centre and, hence, a significant geomagnetic impact was forecasted. Read More