Makiko Sato - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute

Makiko Sato
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Makiko Sato
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NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute
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Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (7)
 
Mathematics - Probability (1)
 
Nonlinear Sciences - Exactly Solvable and Integrable Systems (1)
 
Mathematics - Mathematical Physics (1)
 
High Energy Physics - Theory (1)
 
Mathematical Physics (1)
 
Physics - Statistical Mechanics (1)

Publications Authored By Makiko Sato

Global temperature is a useful metric for global climate that helps define the potential amplitude of slow climate feedbacks, such as ice sheet melt and sea level rise. Annual temperature in 2016, enhanced by the 2015-2016 El Nino, was +1.3 degC relative to 1880-1920. Read More

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Read More

2012Nov
Affiliations: 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 2NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 3NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1{\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Read More

"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3{\sigma}) warmer than climatology. Read More

Global warming due to human-made gases, mainly CO2, is already 0.8{\deg}C and deleterious climate impacts are growing worldwide. More warming is 'in the pipeline' because Earth is out of energy balance, with absorbed solar energy exceeding planetary heat radiation. Read More

2011May
Affiliations: 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 2NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 3NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 4Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 \pm 0. Read More

2011May
Affiliations: 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 2NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Read More

As an image of the many-to-one map of loop-erasing operation $\LE$ of random walks, a self-avoiding walk (SAW) is obtained. The loop-erased random walk (LERW) model is the statistical ensemble of SAWs such that the weight of each SAW $\zeta$ is given by the total weight of all random walks $\pi$ which are inverse images of $\zeta$, $\{\pi: \LE(\pi)=\zeta \}$. We regard the Brownian paths as the continuum limits of random walks and consider the statistical ensemble of loop-erased Brownian paths (LEBPs) as the continuum limits of the LERW model. Read More