Jennifer L. Wadsworth

Jennifer L. Wadsworth
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Jennifer L. Wadsworth

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Statistics - Methodology (5)
Mathematics - Probability (1)
Statistics - Applications (1)

Publications Authored By Jennifer L. Wadsworth

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models that exhibit a property known as asymptotic independence. However, weakening dependence does not automatically imply asymptotic independence, and whether the process is truly asymptotically (in)dependent is usually far from clear. Read More

The multivariate generalized Pareto distribution arises as the limit of a suitably normalized vector conditioned upon at least one component of that vector being extreme. Statistical modelling using multivariate generalized Pareto distributions constitutes the multivariate analogue of peaks over thresholds modelling with the univariate generalized Pareto distribution. We introduce a construction device which allows us to develop a variety of new and existing parametric tail dependence models. Read More

Multivariate peaks over thresholds modeling based on generalized Pareto distributions has up to now only been used in few and mostly 2-dimensional situations. This paper contributes theoretical understanding, physically based models, inference tools, and simulation methods to support routine use, with an aim at higher dimensions. We derive a general point process model for extreme episodes in data, and show how conditioning the distribution of extreme episodes on threshold exceedance gives four basic representations of the family of generalized Pareto distributions. Read More

Different dependence scenarios can arise in multivariate extremes, entailing careful selection of an appropriate class of models. In bivariate extremes, the variables are either asymptotically dependent or are asymptotically independent. Most available statistical models suit one or other of these cases, but not both, resulting in a stage in the inference that is unaccounted for, but can substantially impact subsequent extrapolation. Read More