A. Isavnin

A. Isavnin
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A. Isavnin
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Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (7)
 
Physics - Space Physics (5)
 
Physics - Plasma Physics (2)
 
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (1)

Publications Authored By A. Isavnin

We present a novel three-dimensional (3D) model of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that unifies all key evolutionary aspects of CMEs and encapsulates their 3D magnetic field configuration. This fully analytic model is capable of reproducing the global geometrical shape of a CME with all major deformations taken into account, i.e. Read More

We present a major step forward towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the terrestrial planets, including the Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over almost a full solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results on 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) with data from 8 years of observations by 5 spacecraft in situ in the solar wind, thereby gathering over 600 independent in situ CME detections. Read More

A key aim in space weather research is to be able to use remote-sensing observations of the solar atmosphere to extend the lead time of predicting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME). In order to achieve this, the magnetic structure of the CME as it leaves the Sun must be known. In this article we address this issue by developing a method to determine the intrinsic flux rope type of a CME solely from solar disk observations. Read More

In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e. Read More

Flux ropes (FRs) ejected from the Sun may change their geometrical orientation during their evolution which directly affects their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how solar FRs evolve in the heliosphere to improve our space weather forecasting tools. We analyze 15 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with clear FR signatures, observed during the decay of Solar Cycle 23 and rise of Solar Cycle 24. Read More

Studying the evolution of magnetic clouds entrained in coronal mass ejections using in-situ data is a difficult task since only a limited number of observational points is available at large heliocentric distances. Remote sensing observations can, however, provide important information for events close to the Sun. In this work we estimate the flux rope orientation first in the close vicinity of the Sun (2-20 Rs) using forward modeling of STEREO/SECCHI and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images of coronal mass ejections and then in-situ using Grad-Shafranov reconstruction of the magnetic cloud. Read More

The Grad-Shafranov reconstruction is a method of estimating the orientation (invariant axis) and cross-section of magnetic flux ropes using the data from a single spacecraft. It can be applied to various magnetic structures such as magnetic clouds (MCs) and flux ropes embedded into the magnetopause and in the solar wind. We develop a number of improvements of this technique and show some examples of the reconstruction procedure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed at 1 AU by the STEREO, WIND and ACE spacecraft during the minimum following the solar cycle 23. Read More